How Did I Do?
Quick post today reviewing the analysis I put out yesterday:
In this post I thought the key would be Louisville’s service pressure and their ability to disrupt or outright score against certain Wisconsin rotations.
I think the strategy against Wisconsin is to be more aggressive and find those cracks in the serve receive.7 In particular, getting the right matchup when Wisconsin is in setter-5 and setter-4, the two rotations with Loberg and Orzol next to each other, can be key. I’m also looking at what server matches up against Wisconsin’s setter-1, which has been (as it is for many teams) by far their weakest sideout rotation.
Louisville started as expected every time: serving in setter-1 and receiving in setter-6. Wisconsin received as expected in setter-6 and then served in setter-5.
Louisville is undefeated and has only dropped one set in this tournament. Neither team is going to change what’s worked so well for them. But, I don’t love the matchups for Louisville when they serve. If I’m them, I’d love to figure out a way to get Dilfer or Scott serving agaisnt Wisconsin’s Rotation 1. It’s not easy to get a run on Wisconsin, but Rotation 1 is your best chance to get one.
I picked Wisconsin to win the tournament before it started, and I’ll stick with that prediction. I think they win 3-1; winning both sets that Louisville starts with serve and splitting the two sets where Wisconsin serves. What do you think?
I got it pretty close here. In all 5 sets, the serving team lost. Anybody know if teams chose serve or receive?1
Wisconsin was able to sideout 10 for 16 (63%) in their Rotation 1. There’s too many factors to second guess, but I wonder if better matchups would have enabled Lousville to crack open some runs in this rotation.
Rotation 4 was the weakest rotation for Wisconsin, and Louisville was able to crack open a couple runs against them. Wisconsin gave up 5 aces in this match, and 4 of them were in between Loberg and Orzol.2
Okay, I’ll give myself a dead-on for the first match. How about the second?
I got the result of the match wrong.
I think it’s a coin flip (same with the other semi), but if I have to make a call, I’ll go with Pitt.
Is there anything I can cherry-pick to make me still look good?
First, if I’m playing Nebraska, I think I need to serve the ball in as much as possible. They are such a good passing team that I think the benefit of serving aggressively just might not be there. Louisville might feel differently, but in 6 sets against Illinois, one of the most aggressive, high-ace serving teams in the country, Nebraska allowed just 3 aces. I don’t think you’re cracking the Nebraska serve receive.
If they can keep Nebraska’s Terminal Serve edge to under 1 point per set, I think they can take the match.
Well, I think I was right about the key determinant of the match, but wrong about how it would play out.
Nebraska scored 91 total points in the match and Pitt scored 84. Nebraska scored 18 points on Terminal Serves and Pitt scored 11. So they were a wash with the ball in play, but the 7-point Nebraska edge in Terminal Serves helped them carry the match.3
So my prediction of “if Pitt does good volleyball, they’ll win,” was… not wrong?
I did think Pitt would try to serve in more. Missing 12 serves in 5 sets was the opposite of what they wanted. It happens; I’ve certainly been there.
I’ll give myself a moderately-off there. I want to go over the video a little more and I’ll get some analysis out before the match tomorrow.
Choose receive people!!!
3 of them in Setter-4 and Setter-5 as we highlighted, plus another late in the 4th when Wisconsin had to keep Loberg in the back row.
Counterpoint: Nebraska had a 1-point TS edge in set 1 and Pitt blew them out in that set. They had a 3-point TS edge in set 2 and blew Pitt out. Terminal Serves don’t account for an 8.5-point swing between those two sets.