Louisville v Penn State

Breaking down the finals

Previous posts on the 2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament:

And Then There Were 4 Part 1
And Then There Were 4 Part 2
Final 4 Preview
Final 4 Review

Here we are, getting ready for the NCAA Women’s championship match! For somebody whose formative volleyball years were in the early-2000s, it sounds weird to describe Penn State as an underdog (especially considering they are a #1 seed this year anyway), but it did feel (and betting lines reflected) like a bit of an upset for them to knock out Nebraska. Likewise, Louisville was, even at home, a heavy underdog to Pitt.

But here we are, Louisville v Penn State for the championship. Current betting odds are giving Louisville about a 70% chance to win the championship. They have home court advantage, but with how good all of these teams are, that seems high for any of these matchups.

Before we get to matchup specifics, let’s look at some overall statistics for the year:

Terminal Serving

Terminal Serving Points
Louisville - 54%
Penn State - 52%

Serve-In %
Louisville - 90%
Penn State - 90%

Ace %
Louisville - 5.7%
Penn State - 6.0%

Error/Overpass Rate
Louisville - 8.6%
Penn State - 9.3%

If you look at the season stats, there’s not a ton to separate the two teams. A few thoughts: