Tokyo Olympic Analysis
Terminal Serving Makes The Difference For Team USA
Since we’re diving deep into Terminal Serving this week, we’ll look at a match in which Terminal Serves helped decide the difference. In this case, we’re specifically looking at the 5th set of USA’s pool play win over Italy. Pool B was tightly contested and going into the last day of play it was a dead heat between USA, Italy, Russia, and Turkey. A USA loss could have sent them all the way down to 4th place.
Italy is known as a tough serving team, particularly with powerhouse jump spin server Paola Egonu. They also have one of the world’s best liberos. So winning the Terminal Serve battle wouldn’t be easy for USA, but it turned out to be critical in the 5th and deciding set.
5th-Set Serving
All coaches want their teams to come up big in deciding sets. In particular, we want our teams to shine in the oft-mysterious category of, “serving under pressure.” Coaches try recreating end-of-game situations in practice, have players serve under penalty of running if they miss, or other tactics to try to get players better when pressure is on. But, in my experience, it seems like the best servers in critical situations are usually just servers who are the best on the team.
To use an example from another sport, David Ortiz was a legendary clutch player for the Boston Red Sox, leading them to multiple World Series and a World Series MVP himself. His career playoff 0.947 OPS and 0.543 slugging was certainly clutch. It’s also remarkably similar to his overall career 0.931 OPS and 0.552 slugging.
I’ve also heard it said that, “clutch players don’t get better under pressure, other players just get worse.” I think that’s not a bad attitude for servers to have. You don’t want players to feel like they have to over-serve the ball in a pressure situation. Just hit the same good serve you would hit at 0-0 and you’ll be in good shape.
The Numbers
USA earned a 3-point Terminal Serve advantage in the 5th set over Italy, which is convenient because they ended up winning the third set, 15-12.
In fact, USA and Italy played to a draw in both other aspects of the game. They each scored 6 points in First Ball and won 5 rallies in Trans. Serve-Pass truly was the difference. Let’s dive into the film to see more.
All It Takes Is One Run
I want to highlight one particular sequence from this match where the serve-pass game, and in particular a couple of Terminal Serves, might have been the difference between winning and losing.
Italy had just taken a 2-3 lead and went back to serve.
That missed serve tied it up at 3-3 with USA’s Michelle Bartsch back to serve.
While not a Terminal Serve, creating an overpass is the next best thing to an ace. 4-3 USA now.
There’s the Ace! That makes it 5-3. On the next play Italy handles a wicked serve in the seam, but a couple of great defensive plays by Bartsch extend the rally and USA wins it in transition to go up 6-3. Italy would never get closer than 2 points.
Other Critical Plays
USA’s Kim Hill came on as a serving sub and served an ace at 12-8. If Italy sides out there, it’s 12-9 and maybe they have a chance. 13-8 is almost game-over.
And Italy did side out to make it 13-9 on the next ball, but they followed it up with a missed serve. They got a few back, but couldn’t fend off 5 set points and USA won the 5th set 15-12.
5-to-5 serves dropping in the seam are some of the toughest to deal with. Italy tried to work USA in those seams at 8-6 and 11-8 but USA handled it well and earned a couple of critical first ball sideouts to extend their lead as they pushed toward the end-game.
Terminal Serving wasn’t necessarily the make-or-break stat for USA Women in their run to Olympic gold. The ability to pass in-system and sideout was arguably the biggest factor for them. But in one critical match, this area of the game was the difference for USA. And if Italy had won this match, they would have had a first-round matchup with Dominican Republic and a much better chance to medal.
This 5th set is an example of how to win with a Terminal Serving Strength. USA played Italy to a draw in the other two areas of the game, and all the aspects of Terminal Serving contributed to the 3-point edge in that category: Italy missed a key serve, then USA poured on serving pressure and cracked open a couple of aces, and USA also saved a couple aces by handling tough Italian serves.
Next week, we’ll look at the profile of a Terminal Serving Weakness. Can teams still win if they give up a couple points in this area of the game?1
Spoiler alert: Yes.